On May 22, 2024, nine small island states won a historic case at the Global Maritime Court, which ruled that all signatories to the UN treaty must do more to protect the world’s oceans from climate change.

It was a significant victory for small island states threatened by rising sea levels due to greenhouse gas emissions. The ruling was advisory but sets an important precedent for the future.

The 1994 convention, signed by 169 countries, has a legal basis to protect the marine environment from polluting substances, including oil from ships, and acknowledged that atmospheric greenhouse emissions were harming the oceans.

The island nations had asked the court for further clarification amid soaring ocean temperatures and ocean acidification caused by fossil fuels and other greenhouse gases.

The nine states constituting the Commission of Small Islands on Climate Change that brought the case are Antigua and Barbuda, Niue, Palau, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. They all experienced two category 4 storms within 24 hours last year.

Gaston Browne, the Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, one of the countries that brought the case, said that small island nations were “fighting for their survival” due to the emissions of big polluters. “Some will become uninhabitable in the near future because of the failure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We demand that the major polluters respect international law and stop the catastrophic harm against us before it is too late,” he said.

The tribunal ruled that all states had an obligation to act and noted “the high risks of serious and irreversible harm to the marine environment.” It ruled that meeting the Paris Agreement's target of a 1.5-degree Celsius global pollution limit was not enough and set a legal obligation to monitor and cut greenhouse emissions.

“The court made history by delivering the first-ever advisory opinion on climate change and rising oceans,” said the group of islands involved in the case.

Island countries have fought for more decisive action on climate change for decades and battled disinformation spread by fossil fuel companies.

World’s Small Island States Located at the Frontier of Climate Exigency

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are often geographically remote, low-lying areas vulnerable to environmental challenges, and are small in size and population. They represent a range of geographic and socioeconomic contexts.

Some are least developed, but most are classified as middle-income countries with a per capita income between 1,036 and 12,535 US dollars, according to the World Bank. They are dependent on tourism, and tourism revenues account for over 50% for some of these countries.

Most are highly dependent on food imports, with 50% importing more than 80% of their food. They experience rising seas, severe storms, loss of homes, roads, and other infrastructure, posing serious legal implications.

Small Island States constitute a group of 38 United Nations member states and 20 non-member associated states that are located in three world regions: the Caribbean, Pacific, and the Atlantic, along with the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, and South China Seas.

The 29 states in the Caribbean are Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Maarten, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands.

The 20 states in the Pacific are American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The 8 states in Africa, Indian Ocean, Mediterranean, and South China Sea are Cape Verde, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Maldives, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, and Singapore.

The SIDS are home to approximately 65 million people and, far from being homogeneous, share numerous features including narrow resource bases but an economic sector that is reliant on the natural environment, limited industry, physically remote, and limited economies.

Human communities in coastal areas are closely connected to their environment, and as such, these islands are particularly exposed to hazards that are associated with the ocean and cryosphere, including sea level rise, extreme sea levels, tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves, and ocean acidification. A common feature of SIDS is a high ratio of coastline to land area with large portions of populations, infrastructure, and assets being located along the coast.

The Effects of Climate Change on Small Island States

The people in the coastal islands are severely impacted by rising sea levels, increasing cyclones, and storm surges. The effects of climate change threaten their very existence, and they have long been recognized as being particularly at risk from climate change.

The people in these countries are very vocal about their problems due to climate exigency. It is critical for them to implement climate change adaptation and do it fast. However, they themselves do not have the resources to protect their islands and their natural resources.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in 2001 that small island countries will experience considerable economic and social consequences due to climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change on Small Island States

1. Rising Sea Levels: The global sea level has risen on average about 250 millimeters (or 9.8 inches) since the end of the Industrial Age in 1880. The rise of sea levels is of particular concern in low-lying island nations because seas are encroaching upon habitable land and threatening existing cultures. The Paris Agreement on climate change set a global target of not exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial times.

However, recent studies show that even that target would cause flooding in vulnerable island nations. According to Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of Ocean Physics at Potsdam University, Germany, even limiting warming to 2 degrees will make some island nations and coastal cities drown. Between 1901 and 2018, average global sea level rose by 15-25 cm (or 6-10 inches), an average of 1-2 mm (0.039-0.079 in) per year. This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in) per year for the decade 2013-2022.

Climate change due to human activities is the main cause. Between 1993 and 2018, thermal expansion of water accounted for 42% of sea level rise, melting glaciers accounted for 21%, while polar glaciers in Greenland accounted for 15%, and those in Antarctica for 8%. Sea level rise will continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.

What happens after that depends on what humans add to greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise would slow down between 2050 and 2100 if there are very deep cuts in gas emissions. It could then reach slightly over 30 cm from now by 2100. With high emissions, it would accelerate.

2. Changes in Temperature and Rain: Small islands are increasingly affected by increases in temperature, according to the report Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, launched by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These effects include larger, more intense tropical cyclones, storm surges, droughts, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, coral bleaching, and invasive species.

Temperature extremes have already increased in intensity and frequency in small island nations. The intensity of temperatures and rains in small island states is expected to increase even more. Projected changes in climate, superimposed on sea-level rise, will rapidly increase flooding in small islands.

3. Effect on Ecosystems and Vulnerability of Island People to Climate Change Impacts: As sea levels rise, island nations are at increased risk of losing coastal arable land to degradation and increases in water levels and salination of soil. Once the limited available soil is salinated, it would be difficult to produce subsistence crops, severely impacting agriculture and commerce of island nations.

The continued degradation of terrestrial and marine ecosystems due to negative human impacts will amplify the vulnerability of small island people to climate change impacts. Severe coral bleaching and declines in coral abundance have been observed in many small islands. Under future scenarios, some islands will experience severe coral bleaching.

It is projected there will be further loss of 70-90% of reef-building corals, with 99% being lost with warming of 2°C or more above the pre-industrial period. Coastal cities and rural communities on small islands are already impacted by sea-level rise, heavy precipitation events, tropical cyclones, and storm surges.

4. Effect on Public Health: Small island states are the frontline states vulnerable to the effects of climate change on human health in a variety of ways. Climate models suggest these island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, prevailing winds, and patterns of wave action.

El Niño events will likely strengthen short-term and inter-annual climate variations. Climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humans, and health professionals are already responding to harms caused by this unfolding crisis. Rising sea levels in island states will have detrimental effects on public health with increases in the prevalence of mosquitoes and diseases carried by them.

Rising sea levels and flooding may cause contamination of drinking water and fresh water supplies. Small Island States encapsulate a range of acute to long-term risks, from more extreme floods and storms to increased risk of water, vector, and food-borne infectious and other communicable and non-communicable diseases.

Mitigation of Climate Change in Small Island States

1. Minimal Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Small island states make little contribution to global greenhouse emissions, with a combined total of less than 1%.

However, it does not indicate they do not produce greenhouse emissions at all, and their governments are faced with the complex task of combining their infrastructure with green infrastructure and nature-based solutions to help with risk management in early warning systems in flood areas and integrated water resource management.

2. Relocation and Migration: Mobility has long been a part of life on islands and could be used in combination with local measures. However, the residents of small islands are too closely tied to their local cultures and lifestyles to move away substantially from these countries.

Human rights activists argue that the consequent loss of national sovereignty, self-determination, and indigenous lifestyles cannot be compensated financially through migration. The focus of international dialogues on these issues should shift from relocating entire communities to allowing these communities to remain and prosper on their islands.

3. Adopting Climate-Resilient Strategies for Growth Diversification: Small island states share the twin challenges of volatile economic growth and vulnerability to climate change. Climate change is a major threat to the economic development of island states, and rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and changing weather patterns have negative consequences on hindering economic growth and diversification of these countries.

Overreliance on tourism, agriculture, and natural resource extraction has left many states vulnerable to external shocks and environmental degradation, negatively impacting their economic growth. To meet the challenges and uncertainties of climate change, economic growth must be diversified alongside working on climate-resilient strategies for growth. There is no one-size-fits-all approach for diversification to climate resilience.

It is, therefore, important to conduct comprehensive studies to identify climate-resilient sectors with the highest growth potential, considering the natural resources of each state, its skills and capabilities, along with market demand. The collaboration between the small states and developed countries should be continued with building capacity and training on green and blue economies and necessary tools, alongside promoting collaboration and networking among the governments, businesses, and civil society.

4. Benefitting from Export Diversification in Small States: Small states face unique challenges of having a small landmass and lack of resources. These countries typically do not have a large domestic market necessary to produce a large variety of goods and are forced to specialize in production based on their comparative advantage to compete effectively in international markets.

A study of structural models of economic development indicates island countries should diversify from primary exports into manufactured exports to achieve sustainable growth. Commodity products typically suffer from volatile market prices.

Therefore, commodity export-dependent countries face export earning instability, and export diversification could help stabilize export earnings in the long run. Earlier studies show economic growth is driven by a country’s diversification of its investment into new activities and the essential role played by its entrepreneurial cost-discovery, and that governments can play an important role in structural transformation and industrial expansion by promoting entrepreneurship and creating the right incentives to invest in a new range of activities.

A study of 34 small states over a period of 1990-2015 by Arnold McIntyre et al, reported on April 11, 2018, found that the states more diversified experienced lower volatility and higher average growth than most other small states, and export diversification had a significant impact on reducing output volatility than improving growth in small states.

The studies found that export diversification has a more significant impact on reducing output volatility than improving long-term growth in small states. Diversification requires fundamental changes and should be contemplated in the context of a cohesive development strategy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development suggests that small island countries fund research and development in fishing and aquatic industries.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development also recommends investing in subsea mining, water desalination, renewable energy, and bioprospecting marine genetic resources. Diversification can help these countries stabilize export earnings and domestic output, hedge against adverse terms of trade shocks, and lead to higher growth by introducing new products to the export and production basket, which can improve their productivity.

5. International Cooperation: Since Mohamed Nasheed, President of Maldives, spoke at the launch of International Cooperation on Climate Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States in 2014, the governments of several island nations have made political advocacy for greater international cooperation a component of their foreign policy and international alliances.

In 1990, a coalition of 44 small island and low-lying coastal states, along with 5 observer states, was created as a voice of the vulnerable and its mandate amplified marginalized voices. It also advocated for the interests of these countries.

In terms of its size, AOSIS closely resembles the countries it represents on the global stage but often works far above it in negotiating historic global commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions, among other achievements. To achieve its goals, AOSIS often draws on partnerships, including the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and European Commission, to bolster its capacity to effectively influence climate negotiations, some of the most complex and difficult in the world.

It also makes vital contributions by helping members to pool their resources and amplify their collective voice in climate talks, beyond securing ambitious agreements with tangible benefits for vulnerable communities. AOSIS centers its advocacy on three key areas – climate change, sustainable development, and ocean conservation.

Climate change has been instrumental in shaping the outcomes of COP 23 and the Paris Agreement, ensuring a strong focus on small states in the context of the Agreement. Following the enforcement of the agreement, its main priority is to ensure the global emissions pathways are consistent with reducing temperature rise well below 1.5°C.

For sustainable development, the small island states have been globally recognized as a special case striving to ensure that specific challenges they face are addressed, particularly through the implementation of an agreed-upon pathway. Small state nations have been stewards of large expanses of ocean and recognized for the conservation and sustainable use of the ocean.

Going forward, small state nations and their alliances will continue to seek international cooperation and partnership to maintain their capacity and build new ones to address challenges and others as the vulnerable states amplify their voices and make lasting environmental, socio-economic, and geopolitical impacts.