In an interview dated January 17, 2010, former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski discussed U.S. strategy towards Iran amid Israeli threats to bomb its nuclear facilities. Drawing on his experience from the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Brzezinski warned of the risks of military action, stressing the importance of diplomacy and deterrence to avoid destabilizing the Middle East and harming U.S. and global interests.

U.S. Response to Potential Israeli Airstrikes

When asked about an interview he gave to The Daily Beast in 2009, Brzezinski reiterated his position that the United States should not allow Israel to use American-controlled airspace in Iraq for a military strike against Iran without permission. He emphasized that if the U.S. were to allow such an action, it would be seen as complicit, regardless of any official stance.

He stated, "We’re not exactly impotent little babies," explaining that the U.S. has the power to deny airspace use and that such a decision should be made deliberately, not stumbled into. For Brzezinski, if the U.S. truly opposes a strike, it must act decisively to prevent it.

The Consequences of Escalating Conflict

Brzezinski warned that a military conflict involving Iran would significantly destabilize the region. He predicted that such a war would:

• Worsen the situation in Afghanistan.
• Reignite conflict in Iraq.
• Set the Persian Gulf "ablaze."
• Cause oil prices to skyrocket, potentially doubling or tripling.
• Push European nations towards greater dependence on Russian energy.

In his view, these outcomes would harm U.S. interests far more than any immediate threat posed by Iran. He urged patience and diplomacy, suggesting that deterrence could still be effective without escalating military action.

Concerns for Israel and Long-term Stability

Brzezinski also expressed skepticism about the strategic wisdom of an Israeli attack on Iran, stating that it would be disastrous for both the U.S. and Israel. He argued that the conflict would increase hostility towards the U.S. in the region and could lead to the U.S. being forced out of the Middle East. This, he believed, would leave Israel more vulnerable in the long run.

He rejected claims that his position was anti-Israeli, framing it instead as a recognition of the geopolitical reality: “If we are finally driven out... how much would you bet on the survival of Israel for more than five to ten years after all that has happened?”

Zbigniew Brzezinski (1928–2017) was a Polish-American political scientist and diplomat who served as National Security Adviser to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981. A key architect of U.S. Cold War strategy, he played a pivotal role in normalizing relations with China, advancing human rights, and supporting anti-Soviet efforts, particularly through U.S. aid to Afghan mujahideen fighters. Known for his sharp intellect and strong anti-communist stance, Brzezinski was both influential and controversial.

One major controversy was his role in the U.S. decision to provide covert support to Afghan rebels, which some argue contributed to the rise of extremist groups like the Taliban. He was also criticized for his involvement in shaping U.S. policy in Iran, especially in supporting the Shah, whose regime was overthrown in the 1979 Iranian Revolution.