Analysts Larry Johnson and Andrei Martyanov examine reports of an alleged Israeli missile attack on Iran. They question the evidence, suggesting that Iranian defenses likely intercepted most missiles, highlighting Israel’s regional limitations and Iran's growing strength. The discussion also covers shifting Middle Eastern power dynamics, with Russia and China’s influence adding to the region’s mounting tensions.

Initial Discussion of Alleged Attack

The speakers discuss the recent alleged Israeli attack on Iran. Johnson notes reports of explosions and missile launches, though no concrete evidence has surfaced of Israeli missiles or resulting damage. He speculates that Russia may have helped Iran prepare for the attack by bolstering its air defenses, which seemingly intercepted most incoming missiles. Martyanov adds that Israel’s missile range is limited, doubting that its ballistic or cruise missiles could reach Iran effectively. They also discuss a rumored Israeli submarine-launched missile, though it is considered a limited asset. Overall, the two conclude that the attack may not have caused significant harm to Iran.

Subsonic Missile Limitations and Propaganda

The speakers examine the constraints of Israel's subsonic missiles, which would struggle to reach Iran from the Eastern Mediterranean. The reported attack is suggested to be more propaganda than an actual strike, as there is no verified evidence of damage. Iran’s strong air defenses, with potential Russian involvement, are emphasized. Additionally, they speculate that recent comments by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken might relate to this incident, though they argue that a successful Israeli strike would likely be visible on social media. As no evidence has surfaced, they conclude Iran emerged unscathed, leaving it with little motivation for further retaliation.

Deterrence and Regional Stability

Johnson expresses optimism that Israel may now be deterred from future attacks, given the lack of success in this instance. Martyanov warns, however, that Iran retains the capability to retaliate strongly against Israel. He also highlights efforts by Russia and China to deescalate the situation. The speakers note that some Israeli officials may ignore the risk of escalation and could consider nuclear options if they felt existentially threatened, emphasizing uncertainty regarding the U.S. response due to pro-Israel influences within its government.

Israel's Conflicts with Gaza and Regional Dynamics

The speakers compare Israel’s ongoing conflict with Gaza to Russia's recent military gains in Ukraine, suggesting that Israel may struggle to maintain military superiority in the region, particularly with support for Iran from Russia and China. They also note Iran’s measured responses to Israeli provocations, hinting at a shifting power dynamic. This shift could impact Sunni Arab states that have historically opposed Iran, reshaping the regional balance.

Iran's Growing Regional Confidence

The speakers observe that Iran seems increasingly indifferent to U.S. influence and is bolstered by effective leadership and military organization. They argue that Israel's recent actions may be driving other Middle Eastern nations to reconsider their alliances. As Iran’s influence expands, the speakers express concern about potential repercussions. They note that the morale and solidarity of Muslim communities in the region may grow, further influencing the conflict.

Israel’s Military Challenges and U.S. Influence

The speakers assert that Israel lacks the resources for prolonged warfare against Iran and criticize its actions in Gaza, which they describe as genocidal. They also question U.S. policy, arguing that it has emboldened Israel’s claims of victory in Gaza while underestimating Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. They speculate that Israel’s recent strike on Lebanon may have failed, with serious consequences for both Israel and the U.S.

Shifting Global Power Dynamics and Israel’s Claims

The speakers question the assumption that Iran is behind every conflict involving Israel and criticize Israel’s rhetoric about territorial occupation and displacement. They argue that the world is witnessing a shift in power from traditional Western powers to resource-rich nations, a shift Israel may struggle to adapt to. The speakers warn that failing to acknowledge these changes could have serious consequences, especially if Israel’s aggression towards Iran proves unsuccessful.

Questioning Israeli Military Preparedness

The speakers critique Israel’s influence in technological and economic sectors and touch on historical military events, including conflicts with the Soviet Union. They question the preparedness of Israel’s current leadership, particularly under Netanyahu, and suggest that some military commanders might face a moral dilemma if asked to engage in ethically questionable actions, likening it to the struggles faced by German soldiers during World War II.

The Emotional Toll on Israeli Soldiers

The speakers discuss the psychological toll on Israeli soldiers, referencing Hadar Goldin, who took his own life after traumatic military orders. They argue that this emotional burden could demoralize Israeli troops, impacting their effectiveness. The speakers also criticize Israel’s control over media narratives, suggesting that Israeli soldiers may be increasingly affected by the ethical weight of their actions.

Public Opinion and Israeli Claims of Victory

The speakers examine Israeli public opinion on their military actions, questioning optimistic views about Hezbollah's weakening and the Israeli government’s persuasive efforts. They criticize the American media and officials who share similar beliefs, citing what they describe as a breakdown in rational thinking within the CIA, Pentagon, and State Department. They doubt Israeli claims of ending attacks on Iran and destroying Hezbollah’s missiles, anticipating that Hezbollah will persist until significant concessions are made.

Potential Repercussions of Israel’s Actions

The speakers discuss possible outcomes if Israel’s alleged attack on Iran either fails or succeeds. In case of failure, Israel could face significant backlash. The speakers conclude with the belief that Russia may have provided Iran with early warning, emphasizing that no concrete evidence of an attack or its outcomes has been verified.

Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA analyst and U.S. State Department official known for his critical insights on U.S. foreign policy and global security. Now a private security consultant, he frequently comments on intelligence, Middle Eastern conflicts, and geopolitical issues.

Andrei Martyanov is a military analyst and author known for his expertise in U.S.-Russia relations and modern warfare. With a background in naval engineering, he offers critical insights into global military dynamics and Western views on Russian capabilities.