Is Israel Shaping Syria's Future After Assad's Fall?

The geopolitical landscape in Syria has taken a dramatic turn, with Israel's military actions intensifying and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime shaking the region to its core.

This article delves into the complex dynamics at play, including Israel's ongoing military strikes in Syria, the role of regional players like Iran and Hezbollah, and the rise of the Syrian resistance.

As the dust settles on Assad's nearly 55-year dynasty, a new, uncertain chapter begins for Syria and the Middle East.

Israel's Military Offensive: A Strategic Push

These strikes are part of Israel's ongoing effort to neutralize any chemical weapons threats and undermine the Syrian military's capabilities. This action comes at a time when the Israeli government is working to secure its borders and military advantage in the region.

As part of this strategy, Israel has seized key positions, including Mount Hermon, a strategic peak in the Golan Heights, which has been occupied by Israel for over five decades. Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has justified the move by claiming that Israel is safeguarding against Iran's influence in the region, particularly its support for Hezbollah and other groups hostile to Israel.

However, while Israel's actions may be framed as part of a defense strategy, the presence of Israeli tanks within Syrian territory raises concerns about the future of the Golan Heights and the broader Syrian conflict.

The Collapse of Assad: A Turning Point for Syria

Was it the internal cracks within Assad's own army, struggling with low morale and poor pay, or the external pressures from military defeats? Perhaps it was the lack of support from key allies like Hezbollah and Iran, who have been stretched thin by other conflicts, including the war in Ukraine.

Despite these challenges, Assad's downfall is not without its consequences for Syria. Reports indicate that around 910 people have died during the final stages of the regime's collapse, a relatively low figure given the scale of violence that has plagued the country since 2011.

However, the political repercussions are profound, with Syria now at a crossroads. Rebel factions, led by figures like Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, are now calling for a new, post-Assad government. The situation in Syria is fluid, and how the country rebuilds itself will be crucial for the stability of the entire region.

The Role of Israel and the International Community

The Israeli government's push to maintain control over Mount Hermon, in particular, signals a determination to keep a strategic foothold in the region, even as Syria struggles to regain stability.

For Israel, the collapse of Assad's regime presents both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, it can reduce the influence of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria. On the other, it risks being viewed as an imperialist force by Syrians and their Arab neighbors.

The U.S. has warned that Israel's presence in the Golan Heights should not be permanent, adding pressure for Israel to formulate a clear exit strategy.

The Rise of the Syrian Resistance

The leadership of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once deemed a terrorist group by the West, has made strategic moves to present itself as a viable force for governance. HTS has made efforts to reassure local populations, including Christians in Aleppo, that their rule would be less brutal than the regime they just toppled.

Despite its controversial origins, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani's calculated approach to governance has drawn attention. His victory speech in the historic Umayyad Mosque, following the fall of Assad's government, symbolized a new chapter for Syria.

However, the challenge for the rebel factions is to transition from military victories to political stability. The danger lies in the internal divisions within the opposition groups and the external pressures from regional players like Israel, Iran, and Turkey.

Israel's Strategic Gambit: Will It Succeed?

Israel's ongoing strikes could help shape the next phase of Syria's political evolution, but they also risk alienating the Syrian population, who may view Israel's presence as an occupation.

For the Syrian people, the future is uncertain. While the fall of Assad represents a moment of victory for the opposition, the rising influence of Israel in Syria could reignite tensions across the region.

Additionally, the influence of Iran, Hezbollah, and Palestinian resistance movements like Hamas will continue to shape the geopolitical landscape in Syria, regardless of who holds power.

A New Era for Syria?

The Syrian people's resilience and their desire for a better future will be key in determining how the country rebuilds itself. At the same time, Israel's actions will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of the region.

What remains to be seen is whether a new era of self-determination and political stability can emerge from the ashes of a country long devastated by war and dictatorship.