The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has reached a critical juncture, with Washington promising an imminent peace deal.

However, the prospect of former U.S. President Donald Trump brokering such a deal raises many questions about what it would mean for Ukraine and how it could reshape Russia’s global standing.

The Current State of the War

Three years into the conflict, expectations about its trajectory have been repeatedly challenged. Early predictions of a swift Russian victory proved incorrect, as did assumptions that Western sanctions would cripple Moscow’s ability to sustain the war. Instead, the conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, with Russia seemingly gaining the upper hand over time.

The initial expectation that Russia sought full control of Ukraine was also misplaced—Moscow’s primary objective appears to have been securing Ukraine within its sphere of influence, rather than outright annexation.

What Would a Trump-Brokered Peace Deal Look Like?

Trump’s previous relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggests that a peace deal under his leadership would likely be favorable to Russia.

His past statements—including the suggestion that Ukraine may or may not remain independent—indicate a willingness to acknowledge Russian influence over parts of Ukraine. Additionally, Trump has dismissed the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, a major sticking point in the conflict.

A peace deal led by Trump would likely involve the formal recognition of Russian control over Crimea and potentially other occupied territories. Such an agreement could involve Ukraine relinquishing certain areas in exchange for a ceasefire and the restoration of trade and diplomatic relations.

This approach would fundamentally alter the West’s stance on the conflict and could weaken Ukraine’s long-term sovereignty.

Impact on Russia’s Global Standing

If Trump were to negotiate a deal that cements Russia’s control over Ukrainian territory, it would represent a significant diplomatic victory for Moscow.

It would signal that Russia successfully resisted Western pressure and was able to dictate terms to its adversaries. Such an outcome could embolden Russia to assert its influence elsewhere, potentially reshaping global alliances.

Moreover, Trump’s approach to diplomacy, which often prioritizes transactional rather than ideological considerations, could lead to a realignment of power in Europe.

Many European leaders, who have been staunch supporters of Ukraine, may find themselves sidelined as the U.S. pursues a deal that serves its own immediate interests over broader Western unity.

How Would Europe Respond?

A Trump-led peace process would put European allies in a difficult position. Many European nations have invested heavily in Ukraine’s defense and have framed the conflict as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.

If the U.S. under Trump shifts its stance and accommodates Russian demands, European leaders may be forced to reassess their commitments and strategic priorities. Some may push for continued support to Ukraine despite U.S. reluctance, while others could seek a more conciliatory approach toward Moscow.

Long-Term Consequences

A peace deal under Trump’s mediation could bring an end to active hostilities, but it might not lead to a lasting resolution. If Ukraine is forced to make concessions, there could be long-term political instability in the region.

Additionally, a settlement favoring Russia could inspire other authoritarian leaders to challenge international norms, believing that territorial expansion can be legitimized through prolonged conflict.

Ultimately, the outcome of any Trump-brokered deal would depend on the balance between American political interests, European reactions, and Ukraine’s ability to negotiate terms that preserve its sovereignty.

What is certain, however, is that such a deal would mark a fundamental shift in global power dynamics, with implications that extend far beyond Eastern Europe.