Protests in Iran and US Actions Reshape an Increasingly Volatile Middle East

Tensions across the Middle East are intensifying as protests in Iran, shifting US policy decisions, and emerging regional rivalries converge, drawing in global political and technological power players.

In Iran, nationwide protests that erupted in late December over soaring inflation and shortages of basic goods have evolved into one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic in years. Demonstrations have spread to more than 100 cities and towns, with protesters increasingly calling for the end of clerical rule. Iranian authorities have responded with force and widespread internet shutdowns, limiting communication and slowing mobilisation, even as clashes continue to surface through sporadic online footage.

Amid the unrest, billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has weighed in through his social media platform X. Earlier this month, Musk responded in Farsi to a post by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, mocking his rhetoric, before X replaced Iran's post-1979 national flag emoji with the pre-revolution lion-and-sun emblem. Some demonstrators, particularly in the diaspora, have adopted the older flag as a symbol of opposition to the current regime.

Analysts, however, say the move is largely symbolic. With internet access severely restricted inside Iran, many protesters are unlikely to have seen the change. Experts argue that while such gestures may offer a brief morale boost to some, they have little practical impact on events unfolding on the ground.

The political pressure on Tehran has also escalated from Washington. US President Donald Trump announced this week that he has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials and publicly urged protesters to "take over your institutions," claiming that "help is on the way." Trump has warned that continued violence against demonstrators could trigger US military action and has imposed a new threat of tariffs on countries doing business with Iran.

Human rights groups say hundreds of people have been killed since the protests began, while Iranian state-linked media report the deaths of more than 100 security personnel. These figures cannot be independently verified. Analysts caution that any direct US intervention could further destabilise the country and risk unintended consequences amid an already volatile situation.

Beyond Iran, Washington has taken additional steps that are reshaping regional dynamics. The Trump administration has formally designated Muslim Brotherhood branches in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan as terrorist organisations, citing alleged ties to Hamas and actions deemed hostile to Israeli interests. The move was welcomed by Egypt's government, which has long outlawed the group and cracked down on its members, but rejected by the organisations themselves, which insist they operate as legitimate political and social movements.

The designations carry significant legal and financial consequences, including sanctions and bans on material support. Critics say the move could further politicise counterterrorism tools and intensify pressure on Muslim civil society groups, particularly in the United States, where several Republican-led states have followed suit with their own restrictions.

Meanwhile, regional alliances are also showing signs of strain. Egypt has quietly shared intelligence with Saudi Arabia on alleged Emirati activities in Yemen, according to sources familiar with the matter. The intelligence reportedly includes surveillance data and recordings of Emirati officials discussing coordination with southern Yemeni separatist forces.

The move reflects a broader realignment as Cairo and Riyadh seek closer coordination amid growing tensions with the United Arab Emirates, whose backing of separatist and armed groups in Yemen, Sudan and Somaliland has raised concerns in both capitals. Saudi Arabia has recently moved militarily against UAE-backed forces in southern Yemen, reclaiming territory previously held by separatists.

Together, these developments underscore a rapidly shifting regional landscape, as domestic unrest, international pressure and rival power centres intersect. With protests continuing in Iran, US policy hardening across the Middle East, and long-standing alliances under stress, analysts warn that the coming weeks could prove decisive for regional stability.