Terror expert warns of new extremists

A new style of Islamic extremist is emerging to replace established networks and increasingly-weakening terrorist splinter groups, a leading Asia-Pacific anti-terror expert says.

Sidney Jones, of the International Crisis Group (ICG), also warned fresh terror attacks were a very real possibility, given the fact there had been an attack in Indonesia against Australian or western interests every year since the first Bali bombing in 2002.

"On the one hand, I think the capacity to do it has diminished, because the group that's been responsible for each of those bombings is now much weaker than it was before," Ms Jones said.

"But unfortunately, we now know that they did plan a once-a-year spectacular operation and my guess is that even in a diminished capacity there'll be an effort to try again."

Ms Jones, the ICG's south-east Asia project director, agreed established organisations such as Jemaah Islamiah (JI) were slowly weakening but warned the void was quickly being filled with smaller groups.

"We're dealing with a number of splinter groups and the people behind Nordin Mohammed Top, who's led the last three spectacular bombings, is in fact the head of a splinter group - it is not JI proper.

"That is what we are seeing with some of these arrests, the fragmentation of the larger groups."

Ms Jones said there had been too much obsession with radical cleric Abu Bakar Bashir and also suggested Indonesia deserved more credit for increased security measures.

Bashir was freed from jail in June after serving 26 months of a 30-month sentence for conspiracy in the 2002 Bali blasts.

"Bashir is out, he is attracting thousands of people when he goes on the lecture tour but I am not sure that it is having any impact at all on bringing either more people into the terrorist network or indeed giving new oomph to the terrorist movement - the dynamics have moved beyond Bashir," she told the 7.30 Report's Kerry O'Brien.

"Indonesia has been far more effective than it's been given credit for.

"We've seen a number of people arrested and taken out of circulation, but also one of the reasons the people behind the second Bali bomb last October couldn't do the big car bomb was because they could not bring in the materials without being detected.

"They couldn't go after the big hotels because there's too much security - I think that shows that the security measures have been effective."