Turkish politics: holding down the Sectarian lid

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   I've been very confused recently about the current political situation in Turkey, and which side Turkey supports in the Syrian civil war. So, today I spent an hour reading different websites and I think I've more or less figured Turkey out. 

The following analysis ignores Turkish ethnic groups (for example, Arabs) and religious groups (Christian and Jew) which are relatively insignificant in number. 

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Two basic facts about Turkey: 

(1) 80% of Turkish citizens are ethnic Turks, and 20% are ethnic Kurds 

(2) 70% of the Turkish population is Sunni, and 30% is Shiite. The Shiites break down into two sub groups: Twelvers (5% of the Turkish population, the same Shiite sect that controls Iran and Iraq) and Alevis (25% of the Turkish population; overall, Alevis are a minor sect in Islam, but make up a sizable minority in Turkey; most members of the Alevis sect live in Turkey) 

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The overall breakdown of the Turkish people is as follows. I am, of course, speaking in general terms, since none of these groups is absolutely homogeneous in their beliefs. 

50% ethnic Turk Sunnis: hate Kurds, so aren't in favour of supporting Syrian Kurds; hate Assad, and want to attack him and his fellow Syrian Alawites; support ISIS because they are fighting Kurds and Alawites; seem indifferent to moderate Syrian Sunnis 

25% ethnic Turk Alevis, 5% ethnic Turk Twelvers: apparently, support Assad because he is a fellow Shiite; hate ISIS, moderate Syrian Sunnis, and Syrian Kurds because they are all Sunni 

20% ethnic Kurd Sunnis: support Syrian Kurds, hate ISIS and Syrian Alawites because they are attacking Syrian Kurds; consider moderate Syrian Sunnis to be allies 

So, overall, 50% of the Turkish people support ISIS, 30% support Assad, and 20% support Syrian Kurds.  With such an even split amongst the Turkish people, no wonder the Turkish government is indecisive at the moment. 

I'm starting to think that a civil war may be brewing in Turkey, just as it is brewing in Lebanon. 

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If anyone has any information about what Turkish "Sunni Turks" (half of Turkey's population) think of moderate Sunni Syrians, please post it here.  It appears to me that "Sunni Turks" are willing to put up with ISIS slaughtering moderate Sunni Syrians, because ISIS is also slaughtering all Kurds and all Shiites in Syria.

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Reepicheep Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Senior Member Joined: 06 November 2006 Status: Offline Points: 324	Post Options Post Reply Quote Reepicheep Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Turkish politics: holding down the Sectarian lid Posted: 30 October 2014 at 12:04pm
	I've been very confused recently about the current political situation in Turkey, and which side Turkey supports in the Syrian civil war. So, today I spent an hour reading different websites and I think I've more or less figured Turkey out. The following analysis ignores Turkish ethnic groups (for example, Arabs) and religious groups (Christian and Jew) which are relatively insignificant in number. ********************* Two basic facts about Turkey: (1) 80% of Turkish citizens are ethnic Turks, and 20% are ethnic Kurds (2) 70% of the Turkish population is Sunni, and 30% is Shiite. The Shiites break down into two sub groups: Twelvers (5% of the Turkish population, the same Shiite sect that controls Iran and Iraq) and Alevis (25% of the Turkish population; overall, Alevis are a minor sect in Islam, but make up a sizable minority in Turkey; most members of the Alevis sect live in Turkey) ******************* The overall breakdown of the Turkish people is as follows. I am, of course, speaking in general terms, since none of these groups is absolutely homogeneous in their beliefs. 50% ethnic Turk Sunnis: hate Kurds, so aren't in favour of supporting Syrian Kurds; hate Assad, and want to attack him and his fellow Syrian Alawites; support ISIS because they are fighting Kurds and Alawites; seem indifferent to moderate Syrian Sunnis 25% ethnic Turk Alevis, 5% ethnic Turk Twelvers: apparently, support Assad because he is a fellow Shiite; hate ISIS, moderate Syrian Sunnis, and Syrian Kurds because they are all Sunni 20% ethnic Kurd Sunnis: support Syrian Kurds, hate ISIS and Syrian Alawites because they are attacking Syrian Kurds; consider moderate Syrian Sunnis to be allies So, overall, 50% of the Turkish people support ISIS, 30% support Assad, and 20% support Syrian Kurds. With such an even split amongst the Turkish people, no wonder the Turkish government is indecisive at the moment. I'm starting to think that a civil war may be brewing in Turkey, just as it is brewing in Lebanon. ************ If anyone has any information about what Turkish "Sunni Turks" (half of Turkey's population) think of moderate Sunni Syrians, please post it here. It appears to me that "Sunni Turks" are willing to put up with ISIS slaughtering moderate Sunni Syrians, because ISIS is also slaughtering all Kurds and all Shiites in Syria.