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Bush . . .

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    Posted: 14 September 2005 at 3:09am

Bush should not count on a pushover
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday September 14, 2005
The Guardian

Angela Merkel, tipped to become Germany's first woman chancellor, is being courted by a growing line of foreign suitors. Tony Blair sought her out during a fleeting visit to Berlin in June. France's presidential hopeful, Nicolas Sarkozy, welcomed her to Paris. And the White House hopes a new chapter is about to begin. But to varying degrees, all may be disappointed.

At first glance, a victory for Ms Merkel's conservatives holds obvious attractions for the Bush administration. Relations reached a post-war low after the current chancellor, Gerhard Schr�der, opposed the Iraq war, and have struggled to recover.

When Wolfgang Sch�uble, Ms Merkel's foreign policy adviser, visited Washington recently, he received red-carpet treatment, including 45 minutes of "face time" with President George Bush. "We are interested in a strong United States and in American leadership," Mr Sch�uble said afterwards. "If we disagree, we will do so on a basis of partnership."

But although the CDU calls for a "new start" in US-German relations, Ms Merkel would be no pushover, said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. "Merkel will go as far as she can but she can't go overboard. Public opinion is a factor and Bush is very unpopular in Germany. She may have to wait for a new US president."

Clear policy differences are likely to persist. German backing for the UN's international criminal court, for lifting the EU's arms embargo on China, and Ms Merkel's opposition to full EU membership talks with Turkey all potentially put her at odds with Washington.

Her anti-Turkish stance has gone down well in France where the reform-minded Mr Sarkozy hopes to win Ms Merkel's backing for his idea of an expanded core group of leading EU nations. In contrast, President Jacques Chirac will want to replicate the Franco-German axis that he forged with Mr Schr�der on EU budget, agricultural, and multilateral policy issues.

Both men could be politely rebuffed, Ms Barysch suggested. "Merkel is less likely to cosy up to the French and will be closer to Blair and the UK on some issues ... It's about recovering Germany's traditional balancing function within Europe and in the transatlantic relationship. Germans like France, they like the social market, they admire its stand on Iraq. But she knows she has to disentangle herself from the French embrace."

Constanze Stelzenm�ller, of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, said Ms Merkel appeared receptive to British arguments about improved EU competitiveness and deregulation: "She has dropped rather heavy hints that she is sympathetic to CAP [common agricultural policy] reform. She may instinctively be more of an economic liberal than she cares to let on." But that did not mean she would suddenly adopt Mr Blair's way of thinking.

Ms Merkel's handling of Russia could prove to be her biggest foreign policy test. She assured President Vladimir Putin last week that their partnership would be "an important priority". That seems realistic, given Germany's reliance on Russia for up to 40% of its oil and gas supplies. But the German right is critical of Moscow's human rights record and Ms Merkel has pledged to build bridges to Poland and the Baltic states.

Ms Stelzenm�ller said: "She would like to reduce dependence on Russian energy. And she may be more ready to support democracy movements in Ukraine and Belarus. But it will have to be treated gingerly to ensure there is no blowback."

Like any aspiring leader, Ms Merkel will ultimately face hard choices. But rather than make dramatic foreign commitments during a tight election race, she is keeping her options open.

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